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- Live Arbitrage Betting Strategy Definition
- How To Bet Arbitrage
- Live Arbitrage Betting Strategy Tactics
- Live Arbitrage Betting Strategy Strategies
- How To Use Arbitrage Betting
- Live Arbitrage Betting Strategy Odds
Use our arbitrage calculator to find out if you've just found a profitable betting opportunity, plus read our arbitrage betting tips and strategies.
Next, in this guide, we want to discuss arbitrage betting. The principle behind it is actually quite simple. The main idea is to make a wager on each and every possible result of an event by placing a series of bets and using a variety of stakes and odds to guarantee your success. This form of betting does yield positive results and is a strategy you could use to improve your chances of winning.
However, you need to understand that nothing is too easy or too simple as it seems. If you believe that all you have to do is make those bets, you are wrong. Like everything else, arbitrage sports betting requires hard work and the right mindset. Hence, our goal is to explain what it is about, show you how to make the right calculations to become successful when using this strategy and weigh down the pros and cons so that at the end you will know whether it is worth using or not. Let's get started.
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Live Arbitrage Betting Strategy Definition
* T&C's apply, 18+.
The Main Principle behind Arbitrage
In the above paragraph, we told you that arbitrage gambling involves betting on every possible result of a game to ensure you win a profit in the end. Now, here is an example to get a better idea of how it works. When it comes to a soccer match, there can be three possible outcomes: for team A to win the match, for team B to win the match, and for the game to end with a draw. Hence, you will need to place a total of three bets. When it comes to a tennis match, two bets would be placed, one for each player to win.
Of course, taking advantage of arbitrage gambling with a single sportsbook is not the best idea. We already said it a few times in the previous sections of this guide that sportsbooks set the odds in their favour, which means that such a strategy will eventually lead to a loss rather than a profit. For instance, if a bookmaker were to think that there were equal chances of each player winning a tennis match, then they might set odds of 1.91 for player A and odds of 1.91 for player B.
What does this mean for you? If you bet £100 on each player, you would make a profit of about £191 for the winning bet, including the stake of £100. However, you would have wagered £200, which means that even if you won some money, it did not surpass the amount that you staked. On top of that, it turns out you lost £9.
As you can see, arbitrage gambling is not just about placing bets on every possible result of a game. There is more to it than you know. There would not be any sportsbooks in operation these days if this strategy worked so flawlessly and effortlessly.
So, if you want to make it work, you need to look for opportunities at different places. This means checking out odds with a variety of bookmakers. Many times these opportunities are addressed as arbs. Imagine another sportsbook set the odds for the tennis match from above. However, they thought that player A was more likely to win than player B. Let's say they set odds of 1.70 for player A to win and odds of 2.20 for player B to win. In that case, you could take advantage of this opportunity. You could easily bet on player A to win with the first bookmaker we talked about and also bet on player B to win with the second bookmaker.
We will dig into the calculations behind this later on. For now, you simply have to take our word for it. You can read all about it in the next sections of our post. At the end of it, you can also find out answers to some frequently asked questions, such as: 'Is arbitrage illegal?'
So, all we can say is that to be successful, you should place a bet worth £107 on player A at odds of 1.91, plus another bet worth of £93 on player B at odds of 2.20. Now, if player A won, you would get a total of £204.37, and if player B won, you would receive £204.60.
So, no matter which player you were to choose, you would have made a profit in both cases. We tried to illustrate how this system works so that you get a better idea of the arbitrage system and its aspects.
And in the next sections, we are going to show you more examples, explain a few additional things, as well as answer the question: 'Is arbitrage legal?'
How to Spot Arbs
The truth about arbs is that they are not very easy to find. The worst thing is, they do not last very long. So, aside from being good at spotting arbs, you should also be very quick and take the opportunity before it has gone. The main problem is that other people are looking for arbs as well.
Now, let's take a look at some sources of arbitrage betting opportunities online:
- Your research – This option takes the most time and work but is sure to return more profits than the rest. Doing your own research can be very effective, but it also is time-consuming. You need to be strong and patient. The biggest advantage of spotting arbs yourself is that you get the chance to use them before anyone else finds them. You also get the opportunity to pick between more valuable and less valuable arbs. This does come with its disadvantages.
- The main problem is that you need to do the calculations on your own, which may lead to a mistake. Another downside is that it just takes time and not all of us are ready to devote to such a cause. However, when it comes to arbitrage betting, it is best to rely on yourself.
- Alert and software services – You can subscribe to alert services, which will notify you when there is a potential arb to take advantage of. You can also purchase tracking software that will locate arbs for you. This is the simplest way to go, as it does not require much effort or work on your behalf. However, since other people use this technology too, you may face the same problem of these arbs disappearing in the blink of an eye. Besides, you have to pay for such a service.
- Forums and websites – If you do not think you can find arbitrage opportunities on your own, you may be tempted to check out forums and websites where other bettors identify arbs and post information about them. Again, you can face the same problem of these opportunities lasting a little while due to other people using the same websites and forums. Not to mention, you will not come across the best arbs because bettors like to keep them to themselves when they spot them.
Keep reading. We will answer some questions at the end of this post, including 'Is arbitrage illegal?'
Why is Arbitrage Possible?
The main reason why arbitrage is possible is that the odds for a given event may be different with different bookmakers, creating a great opportunity for you to make a profit out of this strategy. However, it must be noted that the difference has to be significant in order for this to hold true. It may be as a result of sportsbooks having different opinions about the possible outcome of a sports event. Or it might be that sportsbooks are trying to balance their platform by adjusting the odds.
The initial odds normally depend on what bookmakers believe will be the outcome of an event. It is normal for the odds to differ a little, but if the difference is notable, an opportunity for arbitrage sports betting may arise. Be it as it may, after the initial odds are displayed, an operator may change them depending on the wagers placed by bettors. They do this in order to reduce the risk of losing massive amounts of money. For this purpose, they may increase the odds on an outcome if they receive plenty of wagers for it and decrease the odds for the other outcome.
How to Do Your Calculations
Here you can find everything you have to know about your calculations. Overall, there are three main calculations to make.
First Calculation
The first one is to determine if there is an opportunity or not. For the purpose, you should check out all of the odds available for both outcomes and feature the best. After that, use this calculation to determine the individual arbitrage percentage (IAP). Apply the calculation to all the odds. The result is expressed as a percentage. Here goes the formula to use:
(1 / Odds) x 100 = IAP
Remember the examples we used in the beginning of this arbitrage betting article? Let's apply them to this calculation.
- (1 / 1.91) x 100 = 52.36% (IAP for Player A)
- (1 / 2.20) x 100 = 45.45% (IAP for Player B)
45.45% + 52.36% = 97.81%
Look at the result. We have got 97.81%, which is less than 100%. This sentence means that there is an arbitrage opportunity. No arbitrage opportunity exists if the result is 100% of greater.
If there is arbitrage, then the figure you get is called a TAP – total arbitrage percentage. The closer the figure is to one hundred, the smaller the potential profit, and vice versa.
Second Calculation
Now, the second calculation to do is to determine the size of your bet. Take a look at this formula:
(IAP x Investment*) / TAP = Stake you need to make
*Investment equals the maximum amount of money you want to stake.
We will now use the examples from above to show you how it is expressed in numbers. Let's assume your investment is £200. The calculation is as follows:
(52.36% x £200) / 97.81% = £107.06 Stake to make for Player A
(45.45% x £200) / 97.81% = £92.94 Stake to make for Player B
Third Calculation
And the last calculation to do is to determine how much you are likely to win from your arbitrage strategy. Here is the calculation:
(Investment / TAP) – Investment = Expected Profit
Using the above example, we get: (£200 / 97.81%) – £200 = £4.48
If you go back to the first section, we demonstrated that if you wager a total of £200 on player A and player B (£93 for one of the players and £107 for the other player), you will get £204.37 if player A wins and £204.60 if player B wins. When you do the math, it will turn out that your profit will vary between £4.37 and £4.60. Hence, the expected profit calculation is correct. There can be a slight difference of a few cents, but what matters is that you can calculate the potential profit almost accurately.
As long as you have a calculator and the right numbers, it will be a breeze to do your calculations and get your arbitrage betting right. You need to practice this for some time before you get used to it. At first, you may struggle, but don't stop trying. No one knows everything about everything. This is an ability that must be acquired.
A few Tips on Using Arbitrage
Here's a list of advice that will help you to be more successful when it comes to this form of betting:
- Spread your bankroll to multiple betting accounts. If you want to take advantage of this strategy, you need to make sure you have accounts with multiple of best online sportsbooks and that they are properly funded. Once you find an arb, you need to act quickly, which means you cannot afford to waste time making deposits.
- Check carefully your calculations. Take a moment to see if your calculations are right before you place your bets.
- Keep it simple; go with sports that offer only two possible outcomes. This will make it easy to get your calculations right. We are not saying that you should always limit yourself to such events because there may be other opportunities out there. However, the longer you stick with these, the easier it will be for you to make a profit.
- Go for betting exchange whenever you can. This will give you a plethora of opportunities when it comes to arbitrage betting. Just keep in mind that it makes the process a bit more complicated.
- Look for arbs yourself. Devote some time to identify your own arbs whenever possible. It is much reliable than using arbitrage forums and websites, tracking software or alert services that are also used by a number of other people.
- Be a part of a team. Looking for arbitrage opportunities on your own can be quite time-consuming. If you form a team, your chances of finding arbs get bigger. Respectively, the time you spend on it is minimised. The more members in your team, the more betting accounts. This will help you maximise your prospective profits.
Pros and Cons of Arbitrage Betting
One of the benefits of this strategy is that it is not difficult to understand and implement. Another benefit is that regardless of the result of a sporting event, you can guarantee a profit by using arbitrage betting. No risk is involved because you are betting on every possible outcome. That said, there also are plenty of disadvantages.
What are the Disadvantages
First off, it requires lots of money since you are going to place a bet on a few outcomes at a time. If you want to make a profit, you need to have a big bankroll. Of the total amount of money you stake, arbs will probably offer a 1%-3% return. For example, if you happen to find good arbitrage betting opportunities that offer a two-percent return, you need to bet around £5,000 on each opportunity to get £100 in return. Let's say you have two arbs. This means that you have to have a total of £10,000 to make this work.
However, this is not the only opportunity you will come across; hence, you want to fund your account with at least £20,000. This is a jaw-dropping amount of money. And to be honest, you may need a lot more than that to keep it up.
Another downside is difficulty finding arbs. You may spend hours and days looking for arbs and still get unsuccessful because other people are looking for such opportunities too. So, even if you spot an arb, it may be impossible to take advantage of it unless you act fast.
The third big disadvantage is that you need to operate multiple betting accounts. This takes time and money. You need to spend quite a lot of time on this.
Last but not Least
Arbitrage betting involves some risks. Here is what can go wrong:
- The sportsbook may cancel the bets. In that case, you will be awarded back your stake. However, if you have started arbitrage betting, one of your outcomes will remain uncovered. This means that you are exposed to the risk of losing. Of course, you can try to place that bet with a different bookmaker, but the odds may not be the same.
- Your account may be limited or closed. If a sportsbook finds out you tend to arb, they may limit your account or even close it. This will prevent you from fulfilling your arb mission.
- You may get your calculations wrong. No one is immune from making mistakes. It is possible to commit an error when researching the possible opportunities and doing your calculations.
- The odds may change. Sometimes after making your first bet, there might be a change in odds. If this happens, your arb may prove to be ineffective or non-existent. In that case, you either have to place the other bets you planned and accept the fact that you will lose or place no more bets after the first one and see whether you win or not.
Frequently Asked Questions:
There probably are plenty of questions popping into your head right now. Is arbitrage illegal? Is it a good strategy? How much money do I need? We sorted out the most common questions, and we answered them for you. Take a look.
Q: Is it worth it? How much cash can you make using this strategy?
A: There is no way to get an accurate answer to this question because a great deal of factors are involved. In the first place, you need to take into consideration how much money you are ready to stake, i.e. the size of your bankroll. If you do not use a lot of money, you cannot make a big profit. Another factor is the amount of arbs you are capable of finding, as well as their sports betting arbitrage percentage. If you are devoted to this, and you manage to find arbs each and every month, you can expect to get returns of about 15% to 25% of the supply of money you have.
Q: How much money should I set aside to get started?
A: As it is with the above question, there is no accurate answer here. You can use arbitrage betting with just a few pounds. You are not required to use a fixed amount of money. The bigger your bankroll, the bigger the profits. However, there is always a chance that you make a mistake. So, our advice is to use an amount of money you can part with without going broke. Even though this strategy works most of the time, there is no guarantee that you will win money.
Q: Why don't sportsbooks fancy arbers?
A: The main reason why sportsbooks are not fond of arbers is that the latter make a good profit in the long run, even though they also lose a great deal of bets in the meantime. This is not acceptable for bookmakers because their main goal is to gain more profits than customers do. Long-term winners are not welcome. If a bookmaker finds out that someone wins a lot, especially through arbing, they will probably try to minimise their gambling activity by limiting their account. What is more, they may even shut down an account if they suspect someone is an arber.
Q: Is arbitrage illegal?
A: No, it is not. Although sportsbooks do their best to prevent it, it is completely legal. Of course, we are talking about those parts of the world where sports betting is legal. If your country does not allow online gambling, you will be breaking the law by arbitrage betting.
How To Bet Arbitrage
Q: Is arbitrage sports betting possible in the States?
A: Yes, it is. However, it is not so easy to use this strategy if you live in the US because there are not many bookmakers to choose from. Due to the complicated gambling situation in the country, bettors have access to a limited amount of gambling portals. As a result of that, there is not a lot of diversity in odds. This means you will have a hard time finding good arbs. However, it does not mean you cannot do it. It takes patience and commitment, and maybe a little bit of luck.
Q: What sports can I use arbitrage betting on?
A: You are at liberty to use arbitrage on any sport you can think of. Ideally, though, you will choose sports that allow for two possible outcomes. Not only does it make betting on all the outcomes easier, but it also means you will not have to spend a tonne of money by betting on multiple outcomes. Soccer and tennis seem to be the two sports where this system will be the most favourable. However, this is only our two cents. Other people will probably think differently.
Other Types
If you want to learn the other types of betting, just click on the links below.
Other Betting Markets & Strategies
If you have any history with sports gambling, you have probably heard of arbitrage betting. Similar to hedging, placing an it's essentially a way to guarantee some sort of profit. It's a far more complicated style of betting, and it typically requires comprehensive research.
What Does It Mean?
You're simply betting on all possible outcomes from a given game or match. However, arbitrage betting is different from hedging in that you place separate bets with separate bookmakers.
If you are hedging, you're most likely placing a pair of bets on the same game or match in order to prevent a major loss.
With arbitrage, however, you place multiple bets with multiple different bookmakers in an attempt to take advantage of differing odds. Different books tend to offer different odds on the same event, so this is a smart way to sneakily guarantee that you come out on the winning side regardless of the outcome.
Most sporting events have two outcomes (win, loss), while some others, such as soccer, include a tie (or draw) as a third possibility. Let's use an example of how you would place an arbitrage bet.
Let's say you want to get in on the action when the New Orleans Pelicans face the Golden State Warriors. You notice a discrepancy in the odds provided by two different sportsbooks. One sportsbook has the over/under set at 220.5 with odds of 6.00 on the over. Another book has the same implied total of 220.5, but offers 3.00 odds on the under.
If you risk $5.00 (as an example) on the over at one place and the under at another. You are guaranteed to come out favorably regardless of the outcome of the game.
The profit will be lower than it would be if you won a standard one-sided bet, because you are still inevitably losing one of the bets, but winning is winning.
Betting Live
Live betting is one of the fastest growing aspects of sports betting. Lines, odds and situations will change as a game or match progresses, and live betting is a fun way to get in on the action even after the game has gotten underway.
Live arbitrage bets are no different than standard ones other than the fact that they occur after a game or match has already begun. Certain books will have different odds on different aspects of the game, such as prop bets, implied totals and moneylines.
How Difficult Is It to Find These Opportunities?
More often than not, finding a lapse in odds between a pair (or more) of bookmakers is going to be a tall task. Most books tend to hover around the same ballparks when it comes to setting odds, particularly for hugely popular events like the Super Bowl, World Cup or Kentucky Derby. As a result, finding arbitrage opportunities for big events such as those is a rarity.
You are much more likely to find differentials for smaller, more obscure sporting events. If you are knowledgeable about something like Liga MX (Mexican professional soccer league) or a low-profile college football or basketball game, you are more likely to find discrepancies between the odds of various bookmakers.
Obviously, if these opportunities were common, people would take advantage all the time. It's more of a loophole in the system than anything else, and being smart about seeking out these chances is a nifty tool of the trade.
Frequently Asked Questions
Live Arbitrage Betting Strategy Tactics
How can I find these opportunities?
As is the case with anything regarding sports betting, you will have to dig a bit to find any sort of edge. Live arbitrage bets, are no exception.
Paying attention to moving lines is crucial. This is less of a concern with a live bet, but lines tend to change when certain factors are taken into account. This is primarily a concern with potential injury situations or weather-related impacts on a game or match.
Moving quickly is key. If you see a discrepancy between a pair of bookmakers on the same game, jump on it as quickly as you can in an attempt to get in before any potential adjustment is made by the books.
Finding an arbitrate bet (also known as a 'sure bet') can be a tedious process, but finding ways to make guaranteed cash was never going to be easy, was it? Fortunately, there are ways to make your hunt a bit less of a chore. A website like Oddschecker makes it particularly easy to see multiple lines from a variety of sites. This way, you can easily compare bets.
What kinds of live arbitrage bets exist?
While the most common form of arbitrage wager is one hinging on the outcome of a given game, live bets take a few different factors into account. While you can certainly still place a live bet on the outcome, the live betting aspect tends to center more around props and other parts of the action.
Can you find differing odds on a certain player scoring over or under 20 points in a basketball game? What about a soccer match ending with more or less than 2.5 total goals? Will Tom Brady throw at least two touchdowns in the second half?
Digging for smart bets can certainly be rather time-consuming, but they are out there for the finding if you search thoroughly enough.
Despite not being particularly common, you will find chances to place these bets every now and again. It may not be as potentially fruitful as placing your standard one-way bet, but recognizing the chance at capitalizing on a live bet is a nice way to slowly build a little bit of bankroll.
To reiterate, you are far less likely to find a sure bet on a large, high-profile sporting event. As long as you can read odds, you will have success. Intricate knowledge of a sport is not even required. There is a reason these bets are called 'sure bets.' If you can identify one, you might as well take advantage.
Learn More About Strategy
Arbitrage Calculator
(takes decimal or US Odds)
Inputs
# of Bets: Number of distinct possible non-push outcomes of the event (the number of horses in the race)
Bet #1: The bet to be placed on the first outcome
Live Arbitrage Betting Strategy Strategies
Line #N: The line offered on event #N
Outputs
# of Bets: Number of distinct possible non-push outcomes of the event (the number of horses in the race)
Bet #1: The bet to be placed on the first outcome
Line #N: The line offered on event #N
Example
# of Bets: Number of distinct possible non-push outcomes of the event (the number of horses in the race)
How To Use Arbitrage Betting
Bet #1: The bet to be placed on the first outcome
Live Arbitrage Betting Strategy Odds
Line #N: The line offered on event #N